17th February, 2026
The UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) analysis highlights how recent United States trade measures are reshaping global export competition by altering relative prices rather than simply restricting trade overall. Changes in tariffs and preferences redistribute market access across suppliers, meaning the impact is uneven: some countries lose competitiveness while others gain new entry points into the same market.
The report shows that tariff adjustments influence sourcing decisions across global value chains. For instance, higher relative costs for certain exporters — such as South African wine — make them less attractive to importers, while lower relative costs for others — such as Italian rice — improve their competitive standing. These relative shifts gradually redirect trade flows, not necessarily by reducing total trade but by reallocating who supplies it.
More broadly, developed economies appear to retain or even expand their tariff advantage, while developing and least developed countries face widening disadvantages. This dynamic contributes to trade diversion, where importers substitute suppliers based on changing tariff gaps rather than efficiency alone.
The measures also affect industrial development pathways. In sectors like cocoa and chocolate, tariff structures favour processed exports from advanced economies while keeping raw-material exporters competitive only at the primary commodity stage. Such escalation reinforces existing specialisation patterns and limits value-addition opportunities for producing countries.
Overall, the report suggests the global trading system is becoming more discriminatory and strategically complex. Success in this environment depends less on static comparative advantage and more on active policy responses — including monitoring tariff exposure, diversifying export destinations and identifying niches where preferential margins improve — in order to maintain resilience and competitiveness.